Macro trend and carry, the deepest book in the world.
Status
Paper only today
A small real money forex test ran in June 2026 and ended down $59 of $1,000. Its last trade closed October 28, 2026. Every strategy has run on paper only since October 24, 2026. No strategy goes back to real money unless it passes the gate below.
The gate
A strategy can trade real money again only when all of these are true:
- At least 100 settled trades (30 for stock and crypto sleeves).
- Positive results after fees and spread.
- Beats simply buying and holding over the same period.
- Worst drop under 15%.
- The edge is statistically clear, not luck.
Then Tyler approves a fixed dollar limit and a stop loss. Today: no strategy has passed.
Honest record
What we've learned so far
- Hourly forex trend: failed the backtest (Jan 2024 to Oct 2026). Too many trades; the spread eats it.
- Hourly crypto trend: failed the backtest. Same reason.
- Stock trend filter: made money over 10 years but trailed plain buy and hold by a wide margin.
- Kalshi event contracts: no repeatable edge found in the Sept 2026 study.
Next up on paper: daily signals with a hold band, and an index with a drawdown filter.
Watchlist · paper only today
What the model is watching today. Research, not advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Today's market mood: Pretty calm.Nothing wild going on, so we play it steady.
Apple
AAPL
↑Betting it goes up
Apple · model leaning up · paper only
FOCS is research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is an offer to buy or sell any security, currency, crypto asset or event contract. All results shown are simulated (paper) unless labeled otherwise. A small real money forex test ran in June 2026 and ended down $59 of $1,000. Its last trade closed October 28, 2026. Every strategy has run on paper only since October 24, 2026. Past or simulated results do not predict future results. Trading can lose all of the money you put in.
Microsoft
MSFT
↑Betting it goes up
Microsoft · model leaning up · paper only
FOCS is research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is an offer to buy or sell any security, currency, crypto asset or event contract. All results shown are simulated (paper) unless labeled otherwise. A small real money forex test ran in June 2026 and ended down $59 of $1,000. Its last trade closed October 28, 2026. Every strategy has run on paper only since October 24, 2026. Past or simulated results do not predict future results. Trading can lose all of the money you put in.
Aussie vs Dollar
AUD USD
↓Betting it goes down
Aussie vs Dollar · model leaning down · paper only
FOCS is research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is an offer to buy or sell any security, currency, crypto asset or event contract. All results shown are simulated (paper) unless labeled otherwise. A small real money forex test ran in June 2026 and ended down $59 of $1,000. Its last trade closed October 28, 2026. Every strategy has run on paper only since October 24, 2026. Past or simulated results do not predict future results. Trading can lose all of the money you put in.
Kiwi vs Dollar
NZD USD
↓Betting it goes down
Kiwi vs Dollar · model leaning down · paper only
FOCS is research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is an offer to buy or sell any security, currency, crypto asset or event contract. All results shown are simulated (paper) unless labeled otherwise. A small real money forex test ran in June 2026 and ended down $59 of $1,000. Its last trade closed October 28, 2026. Every strategy has run on paper only since October 24, 2026. Past or simulated results do not predict future results. Trading can lose all of the money you put in.
Dollar vs Loonie
USD CAD
↑Betting it goes up
Dollar vs Loonie · model leaning up · paper only
FOCS is research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is an offer to buy or sell any security, currency, crypto asset or event contract. All results shown are simulated (paper) unless labeled otherwise. A small real money forex test ran in June 2026 and ended down $59 of $1,000. Its last trade closed October 28, 2026. Every strategy has run on paper only since October 24, 2026. Past or simulated results do not predict future results. Trading can lose all of the money you put in.
5 on the watchlist today. Paper only, no real money.
FOCS is research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is an offer to buy or sell any security, currency, crypto asset or event contract. All results shown are simulated (paper) unless labeled otherwise. A small real money forex test ran in June 2026 and ended down $59 of $1,000. Its last trade closed October 28, 2026. Every strategy has run on paper only since October 24, 2026. Past or simulated results do not predict future results. Trading can lose all of the money you put in.
Five markets
One disciplined engine, five markets, the same form printed in five inks. It reads the signal, debates it, grades it, sizes it, and brings each one into focus.
The Desk
Straight up: these are referral links. If you sign up, I may get paid, and you may get a bonus too. Each platform sets its own terms.
Trade
Not financial advice. Markets carry risk, including loss of principal. Bonuses and terms are set by each platform and can change.
focus/ˈfoʊkəs/verb
to examine market ideas through historical simulations, stated assumptions and limits.
Research records the question, the method and the limits.